Irrigated areas, mainly in arid regions, are threatened by salinization processes. Climate change inducing temperature rise and rainfall depletion is expected to enhance these processes. Numerical models are often used to estimate and predict water and solute fluxes reaching groundwater. Climatic data, mainly rainfall, have an important influence on the estimation of those fluxes. The present paper aims to study the impact of rainfall structure and climate change on soil and groundwater salinization. Soil samples were collected in three drip irrigated plots in Korba semi-arid coastal plain in Tunisia during dry and wet seasons. Collected field data (water contents and soil salinities) were used to define the initial solute and flow conditions and to estimate the soil hydraulic parameters for numerical modelling. Daily rainfall structure and annual rainfall transition under both MarKov Chain and climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were assessed. Different climatic scenarios were then introduced as boundary conditions in HYDRUS-1D, to test the influence of rainfall on solute fate. Results showed that both annual rainfall amounts and daily structure had an impact on soil concentrations and solute fluxes quantities reaching groundwater. Influence of rainfall paths was more important for higher unsaturated zone thickness when considering the dry and the median condition. Climate change scenarios showed significant accumulation of salts in the root zone implying the imperative use of adequate irrigation practices.